Forecasting and Quantification of Medicines and Health Products

Course programme


There are many challenges ensuing from the increasing number of stakeholders in the health sector of developing countries. Different stakeholders often have different funding mechanisms and reporting requirements, which makes quantification of essential medicines and medical supplies more complicated. The course addresses the challenges faced during the forecasting and quantification of essential medicines, including HIV/AIDS medicines, anti-malarials and TB medicines. It aims at building up the participants’ capacity to master the forecasting and quantification tasks and to decide for the appropriate procurement planning process based on a profound analysis of the data.

Course objectives

 After having successfully completed the module, students will be able to:

  • Explain basic concepts of forecasting and quantification.
  • Comprehend the importance of F&Q in the overall supply chain cycle.
  • Describe the overall process of F&Q including key steps in the quantification process.
  • Compare and contrast between commonly used quantification methods.
  • Adopt and apply an appropriate quantification method in any given scenario.

What are the target participants?

 The course is particularly suitable for people responsible for the quantification components of the supply chain especially, pharmacists and pharmaceutical buyers, physicians, senior health system managers, technical assistance professionals from governmental and non-governmental organisations and those managing drug supply organisations and hospitals.

Some prior knowledge and experience in supply chain management in the health sector is an advantage.

Teaching and learning strategy

This e-course requires the students to go through the course materials on the learning platform with the support of an online facilitator to encourage self-directed learning. Taking part in discussion forums, exchanging ideas with fellow participants and completing online quizzes will form a vital part of the learning experience.

Assessment and grading

Participants will be graded based on their online participation and completion of activities. A certificate of completion and an e-badge will be awarded to all those who complete a minimum of 75% of all online activities (lessons, quizzes, discussion forums). The percentage of completion will be measured automatically online as the participant goes through the course.

In addition, there are several short assignments to guide the learning process of the participants, offering feedback on the submissions and an opportunity to interact with the facilitator. Assignment responses should be submitted within the respective due dates (one week after opening) as to the schedule below.

Course duration

6 weeks

Level of effort: 4 hours per week

Course schedule

Week 1

Introduction to quantification
Week 2

The quantification process
Week 3

Quantification methods
Warm up exercises
Week 4

Practical exercises - introduction
A. Practical exercises using consumption method
Week 5

B. Practical exercises using morbidity method
C. Practical exercises using demographic method
Week 6

Course completion
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